Sunday, October 21, 2007

One More Week....

I should warn you that, although I am a program manager, my college degrees are in mathematics (yes, I am a geek).

So as I thought about what my marathon target times should be, I consulted a variety of on-line pace calculators and combined that with my own training data and gut feelings.

Here is my analysis / "predictions" for MCM:

Realistic target time (probable time): 5:10:00 / 11:50 min/mile pace

Dream time: 4:59:59 / 11:27 min/mile pace

Here is my reasoning - I am open for recommendations.

1. Based on my 5 miler time today, the models are predicting anywhere from 4:45 - 4:56 for marathon time. I think that is on the optimistic side.

2. My really long runs have been around the 12 min/mile pace. During the PWWHM I kept an 11:45 min/mile pace. I think that could have been a little better under larger crowd race conditions.

3. My shorter training runs have been consistently around a 10:35 min/mile pace - when running very easy they are just over 11 min/mile. This makes me think that an 11:50 pace is quite reachable, and 11:27 might even be possible.

4. My Parrot Predictor (based on weeks I have trained more than 26.2 miles) has indicated: 5:08, 5:16, 5:01, 4:49, 5:04 during my September training. This makes a 5:05 or 5:10 finish seem quite reasonable.

5. The race course has some hills - I have been training on flat terrain. The hills will give me a little trouble and slow me a bit in some places.

6. The weather is supposed to be perfect if the 10 day forecast is correct: Sunny skies, high temperature of 64 degrees. Low of 46 degrees. After training and running in the heat and humidity all summer, the effort should be lower (as I was so hoping).

Either way, I expect a PR since my Disney Marathon time was 5:47, and I have 10 more months of experience and training on my side.

Now did I jinx my race by making predictions???

Question: For race strategy I was going to line up with the 5 hour pace group and try to stay with them. If it gets too much I will drop back. Does that sound ok?


IrishBlue said...

Wow, you do like math. I can't say too much, I use the race calculators too.

I think lining up with the 5 hour group is an excellent idea. I would assume staying with a pace group would help you stay on target. As you said, you can always fall back if need be.

Good luck Chris!!!!!!!!!!!! We'll all be pulling for you.

ShirleyPerly said...

I think you should line up with the 5-hour marathoners. Your race predictions are based on weather conditions that are significantly warmer than what MCM should be. The cooler weather will make a big difference, even with hills in the first half. But there's not much shade on the 2nd half of this course and, of course, there's that big hill to climb to the finish so you'll want to make sure you're still feeling very fresh by the halfway point. If there's any doubt, slow down and run your own race.

Enjoy this wonderful race!!!

Jamie said...

Can't wait to read about your upcoming PR, and love the pre-race analysis! I'm sure all your hard work will pay off.


lizzie lee said...

Chris, I ran 20 last Saturday in DC and the weather was perfect. I hope you the best. Enjoy every mile...

Marathon Maritza said...

I have to agree with everyone that lining up with the 5:00 pace group is a great idea. I was training for a 4:20 and there are only 4:15 or 4:30 pace groups, so I'm also going with a faster pace group (I wasn't gonna line up SLOWER!)

I'm so excited for you!

Petraruns said...

Chris - I was going to say the same as everyone else. Line up with the pace group BUT run your own race. I've used pace groups in Chicago and Amsterdam but lost both fairly quickly due to pit stops. I overtook my Amsterdam one in the end but the point is - I kept my eye on my pace throughout with my watch and a print-out-able pace band which really helps. Monitor yourself every mile and see where you are. But crowd support and cooler weather should really help you. We are all rooting for you!

Susan said...

I say line up with the 5-hr folks. My dream, also, is 4:59:59 -- and I am fully banking on trying to stick to it as long as humanly possible!

Your predictions are impressive. I'd love to know how you made them all! Help!

You are going to ROCK the MCM. We are all rooting for you! Your training has been PERFECT - go girl!

lizzie lee said...

I certainly thought of you a lot running my 20 miles in DC... I wish you the best. I know you will have a great time. I will follow the race and your post comments...

Take care...